# Development of Short-term Evapotranspiration Forecasting Model using Time Series Method to Support The Precision Agriculture Management in Tropics

Open field tropical horticulture production is highly affected by the uncontrollable environment. Consequently, farmer manages their farming activity so as to adapt the environment, such as an appropriate planting schedule, plant maintenance, and daily irrigation. Nowadays, climate change intensifies unpredictable weather and unstable climate distribution. The precision farming approach was introduced by the utilization of on-site environmental monitoring system to support the decision-making process for the daily operations. Evapotranspiration (ET) is the sum of evaporation and transpiration from the soil surface and plant tissue that can be used to assess the water loss behavior in open- field cultivation. In order to support the daily farm management, it is necessary to have a short-term evapotranspiration forecasting to predict n-hour step ahead. The objective of this study was to develop a short-term evapotranspiration forecasting model using time series method. The model is based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The environmental data of air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation, observed at Rejeki Tani Yogyakarta on January to August 2014, were used for the datasheet. The ET was estimated using the FAO56 Penmann-Monteith. A suitable parameter of non- seasonal autoregressive order (p), the degree of differencing (d), moving average order (q), and their seasonal parameter (P, D, Q)m were investigated to predict 12-hour ahead of ET. As the result, the suitable parameter was SARIMA (1,2,1)(0,2,1)24. From the 8 days model verification, maximum MSE and RMSE were 0.069 and 0.091 respectively. From the model validation with the different monsoon, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.955.

Author:  Andri Prima Nugroho, Dita Endah Rahayu, Lilik Sutiarso, Mohammad Affan Fajar Falah, and Takashi Okayasu.

This paper will be presented at the National Conference of Indonesian Society of Agricultural Engineer 2018 in Aceh, Indonesia.

# Example of Latex page

[latexpage]
At first, we sample $f(x)$ in the $N$ ($N$ is odd) equidistant points around $x^*$:
$f_k = f(x_k),\: x_k = x^*+kh,\: k=-\frac{N-1}{2},\dots,\frac{N-1}{2}$
where $h$ is some step.
Then we interpolate points $\{(x_k,f_k)\}$ by polynomial
\label{eq:poly}
P_{N-1}(x)=\sum_{j=0}^{N-1}{a_jx^j}

Its coefficients $\{a_j\}$ are found as a solution of system of linear equations:
\label{eq:sys}
\left\{ P_{N-1}(x_k) = f_k\right\},\quad k=-\frac{N-1}{2},\dots,\frac{N-1}{2}

Here are references to existing equations: (\ref{eq:poly}), (\ref{eq:sys}).
Here is reference to non-existing equation (\ref{eq:unknown}).

# Research on Agricultural Informatics – Utilization of ICT to Improve The Agricultural Production System in Tropical Country

Environmental conditions is important factor affects the agricultural production system. In four seasons country like Japan, weather condition during cultivation can be fully controlled by utilization of greenhouse and environmental management. Microclimate manipulator can be managed automatically based on environmental evaluation. However, in tropical country like Indonesia, utilization of automatic control on greenhouse for agricultural production system is still rare because of the operational costs and the economic aspects. Thus, here we try to utilize the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to improve the agricultural production system on tropical agriculture by implementation of regular environmental measurement using Field Monitoring System (FMS), Real-time environmental evaluation and information processing, and provision of decision support on farming activities. We realize that the incorporation of  farmer’s knowledge and utilization of ICT would be able to support modern agriculture and also promising  the progress on towards precision agriculture.

# Deployment of Agricultural Information System – Installation and Utilization of Field Monitoring System on Agricultural Production in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Agriculture is remaining to be a strategic sector in Indonesia. Besides its growth, there are also several challenges. Among others is the optimization of the agricultural production system. Practically, Indonesian farmers have improved their own cultivation technique and senses from their long-term accumulated experiences, includes knowledge about climate, weather, soil, crop type, etc. In this study, the author introduced an informatization agricultural supporting system, called the “Agri-eye” in order to improve agricultural production systems by integrating local knowledge and utilization of Information Communication Technology (ICT). Field monitoring system (FMS) is an automatic weather station installed in agriculture field to gather environmental data and forward it to the database server periodically, in addition, farmers can check their field environmental condition in real-time from a mobile phone or computer. Up to now, two FMS units have been installed in Sardonoharjo, Ngaglik, Sleman and Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta as deployment test. In this article, installation and utilization of Field Monitoring System (FMS) on agricultural production will be explained. As the result, long-term environmental monitoring data (air temperature, air humidity and solar radiation) have been used as farmer decision support to prevent crops damages caused by extreme weather during cultivation. In the future works, comprehensive utilization of environmental information, local weather forecast, and control will be studied.

Keyword: precision agriculture, precision farming, tropical agriculture, information technology in agriculture, environmental monitoring

Submitted to International Conference on International Conference on Sustainable Innovation (ICoSI) Indonesia

# Penerapan Teknologi Inovatif dalam Industri Kelapa Sawit Ramah Lingkungan

Berawal dari share link mengenai seminar sawit yang diselenggarakan oleh jurusan teknik pertanian dan biosystem ugm di wall facebook, ada teman yang menanyakan terkait tema dari seminar, adapun tema yang diangkat pada seminar kali ini adalah “Penerapan Teknologi Inovatif dalam Industri Kelapa Sawit Ramah Lingkungan”, dan pertanyaan yang dilontarkan adalah apa sih teknologi ramahlingkungan yang di tawarkan?

# seminar note:Agriculture and Integrated Production (IP) in Europe: The Almeria Case

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]inter 2012. Today i had opportunity to join special seminar in IT-Agriculture, held by Laboratory of Farm Management, my neighbor laboratory. The keynote speaker is Prof. Fernando Bievenido frrom Departement of Computer Language and Science, University of Almeria, Spain. He will explain his research entitled “Agriculture and Integrated Production(IP) in Europe: The Almeria’s Case”. In this note, I just try retell what I catch from his interesting topics.

Cooperation between all the agent was really the key point of implementation Integrated Production(IP)